Coupled multi-model climate and climate suitability change predictions for major cassava growing regions of India under two representative concentration pathways

R. Shiny, J. Sreekumar, G. Byju

Abstract


Changes in suitability of crops under climate change studies are a pre-requisite to achieve sustainable utilization of available land resources and to attain food security. This study attempts ensembled multimodel prediction of change in climate and climate suitability of cassava by 2030 and 2050 in major cassava growing regions of India under 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). Suitability of cassava was modelled using EcoCrop model in Diva GIS 7.5. Climate and suitability changes were analysed using Diva GIS 7.5 and Arc GIS 10.1. The study showed a general warming of climate over the major cassava growing regions by 2030 and 2050 under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The mean temperature of major cassava growing regions in 2030 will increase by 1.18 - 1.550C and 1.29 - 1.490C for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5; and 1.62 - 1.780C and 2.03 - 2.280C for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050. The precipitation in 2030 will increase by 13.57 - 92.40 mm and 25.27-103.70 mm for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5; and in 2050 it will change by -1.91 to 73.4
mm and 5.31 to 56.60 mm for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate suitabilty will change by -1 to 8 % and -1.34 to 12.02 % in 2030 for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5; and -1.27 to 11.67% and -3.76 to 6.59% for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050. Districts in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh showing highest positive and negative impacts on climate suitability of cassava for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2030 and 2050 were identified. Districts showing no negative impact were also predicted. The results showed cassava’s comparative advantage in climate resilence compared to other major food crops such as rice and wheat.


Keywords


Cassava; Climate change; Climate suitability; Representative concentration pathways

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References


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