A novel approach to predict the onset of South West Monsoon in Kerala
Keywords:
Kerala, Onset, PMRP, PredictionAbstract
A univariate statistical approach for prediction of onset of South West monsoon along with a model based on Pre Monsoon Rainfall Peak (PMRP) has been demonstrated in this study using the dates of onset for 147 years from 1870 – 2016 published by IMD and daily climatic variables viz; rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind velocity for a period from 1984 – 2016 for the region Vellanikkara (bounded by 100 31'; 76013'), Thrissur. The average date of onset was found to be June1with a S.D of 7 days. The occurrence of a PMRP was confirmed about 8 pentads before the onset of monsoon. A significant correlation coefficient of 0.59 between the dates of PMRP and onset dates has resulted in the formulation of a regression equation to predict onset dates with adequate degree of precision. Long term predictions with minimum possible errors have been realised using an emerging univariate statistical model. A non contiguous regression model by means of weighted least squares with heteroscedasticity correction has been applied to predict onset dates using its own significant auto correlated lags.References
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